Cardano ETF Odds Surge as Polymarket Bets Hit Record High

• Polymarket now gives Cardano a 79% chance of ETF approval, backed by Bloomberg analysts’ 90% estimate.
• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF success is fueling demand for altcoin ETFs like ADA.
• Cardano’s price is near oversold levels and could rally if ETF momentum continues and technical support holds.

Polymarket traders have raised the odds of a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF approval to 79%, marking the highest probability ever recorded for the asset on the platform. The renewed confidence follows updated projections from Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who now estimate a 90% chance of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The higher probability follows indications of fruitful interactions between issuers of ETFs and regulators. This would follow Grayscale, which currently manages Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, filing an ETF proposal on Cardano with NYSE Arca earlier this year. Analysts see the ongoing communication between the commission and the SEC as an indication that the SEC would soften their position concerning altcoin ETF.

Balchunas said on X that the likelihood of ADA, Dogecoin, and XRP being approved was all elevated because of the positive mood of the SEC. The analysts also predict 95% chances of Avalanche, Polkadot, and Litecoin ETFs. These predictions are based on the precedent of Bitcoin ETFs, notably BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ), which came to encompass $70 billion in assets in just 341 days.

Technical Signals Show ADA at a Reversal Zone

Cardano’s price currently sits at $0.5768, down 3.85% on the day. However, the trading volume surged by more than 61% to $745.2 million, suggesting new activity as speculation over ETFs mounts. The company has a market cap of $20.39 billion, placing it within the top 10 cryptos.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold territory of 29.91. With ADA touching the low band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.5668, traders are keeping alert to see the possible short-term upside. The technical pressure might be piling up, but the historical trend shows that this kind of arrangement tends to be followed by severe rebounding.

The daily chart indicates that ADA has remained inside a broad ascending wedge structure. This formation has already caused significant rallies of 200% to 300%. Analysts tracking this trend have indicated that a retest of the $2.40 level is still possible, provided there is a hold on the wedge support and increasing momentum on the ETF.

Bitcoin ETF Success Triggers Altcoin Fund Boom

Altcoin ETFs are gaining momentum with asset managers competing to recreate the success of Bitcoin-based funds. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been the strongest, surpassing 31 days of consecutive inflows in June with an asset total of more than $70 billion after only 341 days. It has surged to become the largest U.S. ETF launch of all time.

Though Bitcoin momentum continues to lead, the same has not been recorded with Ether ETFs. Since its introduction in July 2024, inflows of Ethereum funds have been modest. Glassnode shows that the average ETC investor continued to be “significantly underwater” through May.